I have written before about how to use reason and critical thinking skills to help wade through all the silly bullshit you see on the interwebs. In our current situation, misinformation, silly bullshit and conspiracy theories are at an all time high.
Every day I see something on "the" Facebook that makes me scream into my computer screen. It's a time of uncertainty and people are taking advantage of our collective vulnerability to gaslight us into thinking that the deep state, big pharma and modern medicine is out to get us.
Keep calm and do CrossFit my friends, and also take comfort in the laws of math, specifically the lovely predictability of probabilistic statistics.
Probabilistic statistics is our way of determining if something is plausible, or in other words if it's probable that something is true or not.
We live in an ethos of you can do anything if you just try hard enough. Anything is possible so keep reaching for the stars. This is great for memes and encouraging Hallmark cards, and it sets us up to give credit to silly bullshit because, "it's possible".
"It's Possible" is not the same as "it's probable" and probability is the world we live in. Thinking that anything is possible is giving equal weight to all possibilities or potentialities. In the real world, the one we all live in, all possibilities do not have the same probability.
Let me explain it this way. What if I say to you, "It's possible that you can do a muscle up." Do you believe that? Based on your knowledge of your body, physicality, mobility and strength it may not be possible that you can do a muscle-up. However, with a focused training program and lots of skills progression you might be able, some day, to do a muscle up. You will have increased the probability through specific action. Some people will never get a muscle up, no matter how hard they practice and progress.
You see? Possibility is "everyone" can do a muscle up where probability is the mathematical likelihood that it can happen for people who work towards it.
Just because something is possible does not mean it is likely to be true. When it comes to conspiracy theories and other silly bullshit on the internet people are preying on our collective "it's possible" belief even though it's highly improbable that it's true. The more complicated the conspiracy theory the less probable it is purely based on mathematics.
I hope this helps you wade through all the silly bullshit that is floating in the sea of Covid craziness. When you get caught in a wave, take a deep breath and ask yourself how probable this thing is. Recognize people are trying to capitalize on your fear, and rely on your calm logic and reason to keep your head above water. Good luck!
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